Download Reliability Assessment of Electric Power Systems Using Monte by Roy Billinton, Wenyuan Li (auth.) PDF

By Roy Billinton, Wenyuan Li (auth.)

The program of quantitative reliability overview in electrical energy sys­ tems has now advanced to the purpose at which so much utilities use those innovations in a single or extra components in their making plans, layout, and operation. many of the innovations in use are in response to analytical types and ensuing analytical review tactics. advancements in and availability of high-speed digi­ tal desktops have created the chance to investigate lots of those prob­ lems utilizing stochastic simulation equipment and over the past decade there was elevated curiosity in and use made from Monte Carlo simulation in quantitative strength approach reliability evaluation. Monte Carlo simulation isn't really a brand new inspiration and recorded purposes have existed for a minimum of 50 12 months. notwithstanding, localized high-speed pcs with large-capacity garage have made Monte Carlo simulation an to be had and infrequently top-rated choice for plenty of strength method reliability purposes. Monte Carlo simulation is additionally a vital part of a latest undergrad­ uate or graduate path on reliability assessment of common engineering structures or really good parts corresponding to electrical strength platforms. it truly is was hoping that this textbook may help formalize the various latest functions of Monte Carlo simulation and help in their integration in education programs. This publication provides the fundamental suggestions linked to Monte Carlo simulation.

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Extra resources for Reliability Assessment of Electric Power Systems Using Monte Carlo Methods

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1. INTRODUCTION The Monte Carlo method is the general designation for stochastic simulation using random numbers. Monte Carlo is the name of the suburb in Monaco made famous by its gambling casino. The name was also used as the secret code for atomic bomb work performed during World War II involving random simulation of the neutron diffusion process. Monte Carlo methods have been used in many areas since that time. The basic concept of the Monte Carlo method dates back to the 18th century when the French scientist Buffon presented the famous needle throw test method(l) to calculate tr in 1777.

0 data are based on statistics for the period January 1, 1986, to December 31, 1990. 3. 9. Basic structure of EPSRA. an overall power system. This procedure is in the process of evolution and, at the present time, contains systems for compiling information on bulk system disturbances, bulk system delivery point performance, and customer service continuity statistics. In the latter area, these data have been collected and published for many years by the Distribution Section of the Engineering and Operating Division of CEA.

2. Independence: There should be minimal correlation between random numbers. 3. Long period: The repeat period should be sufficiently long. There is a wide range of random number generation methods. Two commonly used congruential generators are given in the following sections. 2. Multiplicative Congruential Generator The multiplicative congruential generator was presented in 1949 by D. H. Lehmer(2) and is based on the following recursive relationship: Xi+! 13) where a is a multiplier and m is the modulus; a and m have to be nonnegative integers.

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